{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-18","games_returned":3,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":4,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"Christmas Big Bass Bonanza","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":24184,"observed_return":0.40446162752232884,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.02097063477043868,"ci95":[0.363359183372269,0.44556407167238865],"max_multiplier":200,"confidence":"high","margin":0.041102444150059814,"publishable":false,"withheld":"implausible","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-18","to":"2026-09-24"},"published_loss_share":0.921146212371816,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Roobet","game":"Christmas Big Bass Bonanza","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":2107,"observed_return":1.1006308669548193,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.17477896750307026,"ci95":[0.7580640906488015,1.443197643260837],"max_multiplier":194.49999999999997,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.34256677630601773,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-18","to":"2026-09-25"},"published_loss_share":0.9003322259136213,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Winna","game":"Christmas Big Bass Bonanza","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":171,"observed_return":1.8201519298245616,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.6241001129287168,"ci95":[0.5969157084842767,3.0433881511648466],"max_multiplier":102,"confidence":"low","margin":1.223236221340285,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-18","to":"2026-09-24"},"published_loss_share":0.672514619883041,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}}]}