{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-14","games_returned":6,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":1,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Roobet","game":"Duel at Dawn","provider":"hacksaw","bets":5963,"observed_return":0.842881716998518,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.09560167119672913,"ci95":[0.6555024414529289,1.030260992544107],"max_multiplier":258.3333333333333,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.18737927554558909,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.9268824417239645,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"Duel at Dawn","provider":"hacksaw","bets":4744,"observed_return":0.42393409218662265,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.09136166595160515,"ci95":[0.24486522692147655,0.6030029574517688],"max_multiplier":410,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.1790688652651461,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.9382377740303541,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Winna","game":"Duel at Dawn","provider":"hacksaw","bets":383,"observed_return":1.669921592689295,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.3068985927909485,"ci95":[1.068400350819036,2.271442834559554],"max_multiplier":75,"confidence":"low","margin":0.601521241870259,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.7467362924281984,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"Duel at Dawn","provider":"unknown","bets":236,"observed_return":0.6340896892655362,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.17903500983742485,"ci95":[0.2831810699841835,0.984998308546889],"max_multiplier":39.00000000000005,"confidence":"low","margin":0.3509086192813527,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.8940677966101694,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"BC.Game","game":"Duel at Dawn","provider":"hacksaw","bets":208,"observed_return":0.29442492459673114,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.07813115926350452,"ci95":[0.1412878524402623,0.44756199675319996],"max_multiplier":9.000000161944445,"confidence":"low","margin":0.15313707215646885,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.9375,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"Duel at Dawn Boosted","provider":"unknown","bets":116,"observed_return":0.49806034482758627,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.1011190217538852,"ci95":[0.2998670621899713,0.6962536274652013],"max_multiplier":7.500000000000001,"confidence":"low","margin":0.198193282637615,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-21"},"published_loss_share":0.8620689655172413,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}}]}