{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-07","games_returned":6,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":9,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Roobet","game":"Fruit Party","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":2676,"observed_return":0.7919150090745893,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.10947260731637379,"ci95":[0.5773486987344967,1.006481319414682],"max_multiplier":208,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.21456631034009263,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.8557548579970105,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"Fruit Party","provider":"unknown","bets":1236,"observed_return":0.9288098705501618,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.08724892702276317,"ci95":[0.757801973585546,1.0998177675147778],"max_multiplier":101.3,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.17100789696461582,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.7305825242718447,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"Fruit Party","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":569,"observed_return":6.4394903339191565,"declared_rtp":0.965,"gap":5.474490333919157,"std_error":2.3757059970354444,"ci95":[1.7831065797296857,11.095874088108626],"max_multiplier":1281,"confidence":"low","margin":4.656383754189471,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.6924428822495606,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}},{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"Fruit Party","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":282,"observed_return":0.17854609929078014,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.026896106259527826,"ci95":[0.1258297310221056,0.23126246755945468],"max_multiplier":3.05,"confidence":"low","margin":0.05271636826867454,"publishable":false,"withheld":"implausible","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.9397163120567376,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Winna","game":"Fruit Party","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":182,"observed_return":1.5567529670329667,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.2108480207044344,"ci95":[1.1434908464522753,1.9700150876136582],"max_multiplier":25.9,"confidence":"low","margin":0.4132621205806914,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.47802197802197804,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"Fruit Party 2","provider":"unknown","bets":147,"observed_return":0.7800272108843538,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.06477294069747751,"ci95":[0.6530722471172978,0.9069821746514097],"max_multiplier":4.8845,"confidence":"low","margin":0.12695496376705592,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-07","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.7891156462585034,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}}]}