{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-08","games_returned":9,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":22,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"First Person Lightning Roulette","provider":"evolution","bets":5330,"observed_return":0.8971989402794054,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.06534401996883193,"ci95":[0.7691246611404948,1.025273219418316],"max_multiplier":200,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.1280742791389106,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.8420262664165103,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"Lightning Roulette","provider":"evolution","bets":444,"observed_return":1.3426495855855858,"declared_rtp":0.973,"gap":0.3696495855855858,"std_error":0.12047789246725249,"ci95":[1.106512916349771,1.5787862548214007],"max_multiplier":25,"confidence":"low","margin":0.2361366692358149,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.5608108108108109,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"Lightning Roulette","provider":"unknown","bets":438,"observed_return":0.7887908488744302,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.057439261954644764,"ci95":[0.6762098954433264,0.9013718023055339],"max_multiplier":8.428571428571429,"confidence":"low","margin":0.11258095343110373,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.6575342465753424,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"First Person XXXtreme Lightning Roulette","provider":"evolution","bets":363,"observed_return":1.2186855112456303,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.1698577536948372,"ci95":[0.8857643140037494,1.5516067084875111],"max_multiplier":33.333333333333336,"confidence":"low","margin":0.3329211972418809,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-12"},"published_loss_share":0.7658402203856749,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"XXXtreme Lightning Roulette","provider":"evolution","bets":322,"observed_return":4.19021200621118,"declared_rtp":0.973,"gap":3.21721200621118,"std_error":2.0275160445669953,"ci95":[0.2162805588598693,8.16414345356249],"max_multiplier":600,"confidence":"low","margin":3.9739314473513105,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.6739130434782609,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}},{"casino":"Roobet","game":"Lightning Roulette","provider":"unknown","bets":304,"observed_return":1.0381564953753997,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.09402083463543576,"ci95":[0.8538756594899456,1.2224373312608536],"max_multiplier":12.127659574468083,"confidence":"low","margin":0.18428083588545408,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.5888157894736842,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Roobet","game":"XXXtreme Lightning Roulette","provider":"unknown","bets":291,"observed_return":0.5967552414427792,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.050578590157170124,"ci95":[0.4976212047347258,0.6958892781508327],"max_multiplier":6.25,"confidence":"low","margin":0.09913403670805344,"publishable":false,"withheld":"implausible","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.7044673539518901,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Winna","game":"Lightning Roulette","provider":"evolution","bets":249,"observed_return":2.210536706827309,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.17918858299596097,"ci95":[1.8593270841552254,2.5617463294993925],"max_multiplier":24.69136,"confidence":"low","margin":0.3512096226720835,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-13"},"published_loss_share":0.27710843373493976,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Shuffle","game":"XXXTreme Lightning Roulette","provider":"unknown","bets":109,"observed_return":1.0519109573296745,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.29513222438055076,"ci95":[0.47345179754379507,1.630370117115554],"max_multiplier":30.000000000000004,"confidence":"low","margin":0.5784591597858795,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-08","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.6788990825688074,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}}]}