{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-01","games_returned":3,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":4,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Cloudbet","game":"Lucky Phoenix","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":2242,"observed_return":0.5925066904549512,"declared_rtp":null,"gap":null,"std_error":0.055364194742457164,"ci95":[0.48399286875973513,0.7010205121501673],"max_multiplier":55,"confidence":"moderate","margin":0.10851382169521603,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-03","to":"2026-09-08"},"published_loss_share":0.8702051739518287,"feed_bias":"unknown","observed_return_note":"Uncorrected for feed selection. The operator chooses which rounds to publish.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":null,"gap":null}},{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"Lucky Phoenix Megaways","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":617,"observed_return":14.858006482982171,"declared_rtp":0.98,"gap":13.87800648298217,"std_error":2.3871682289374547,"ci95":[10.17915675426476,19.536856211699583],"max_multiplier":819.52,"confidence":"low","margin":4.678849728717411,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-01","to":"2026-09-08"},"published_loss_share":0.6693679092382496,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}},{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"Lucky Phoenix Megaways 2","provider":"pragmatic play","bets":249,"observed_return":17.82815261044177,"declared_rtp":0.98,"gap":16.84815261044177,"std_error":4.721488600853912,"ci95":[8.574034952768102,27.082270268115437],"max_multiplier":805.85,"confidence":"low","margin":9.254117657673667,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-01","to":"2026-09-08"},"published_loss_share":0.7068273092369478,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}}]}