{"window_days":7,"from":"2026-09-14","games_returned":1,"games_withheld_below_min_bets":0,"min_bets":100,"method":{"estimator":"mean payout multiplier, currency independent","interval":"95%, mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors","source":"each casino's own public bet feed, captured by us","sampling":"the feeds are rolling windows the operators publish; this is a sample of their flow, not the whole of it, and the selection rule is not visible to us","declared_rtp":"only Stake.com publishes a house edge, so declared_rtp and gap are null for other operators","selection_bias":"the feeds are the operators' own marketing surfaces and the selection leans toward winning rounds, so observed_return is UNCORRECTED and biased upward by an unknown amount that differs per operator. feed_bias reports 'curated' where an observed return above 100% proves the feed is incomplete, since no game returns more than it takes over the long run."},"confidence_levels":{"high":">=10000 bets","moderate":">=1000","low":">=100","insufficient":"<100"},"publishable":["low","moderate","high"],"source_kinds":{"observed":"Counted directly from the operator's public feed.","derived":"Computed from observed data through a documented method.","reported":"Published by the operator. We repeat it, we do not verify it.","estimate":"Model output carrying assumptions. Always a range."},"games":[{"casino":"Stake.com","game":"Waylanders Forge","provider":"valkyrie","bets":586,"observed_return":12.98481228668942,"declared_rtp":0.977,"gap":12.00781228668942,"std_error":4.184834789578837,"ci95":[4.7825360991149,21.18708847426394],"max_multiplier":2222.53,"confidence":"low","margin":8.20227618757452,"publishable":false,"withheld":"imprecise","diverges_from_declared":null,"window":{"from":"2026-09-14","to":"2026-09-14"},"published_loss_share":0.7440273037542662,"feed_bias":"curated","observed_return_note":"This feed publishes more wins than it publishes losses, proven by an observed return above 100%. Read it as a floor on the operator's curation, not as the game's return.","source":{"bets":"observed","observed_return":"derived","declared_rtp":"reported","gap":"derived"}}]}